Cleaning and Disinfectant Chemical Exposures and Temporal Associations with COVID-19 — National Poison Data System, United States, January 1, 2020–March 31, 2020

Calls to poison control centers in March surged by almost 20% compared to the same period in 2019, according to a new report released by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Associated with the increased use of cleaners and disinfectants is the possibility of improper use, such as using more than directed on the label, mixing multiple chemical products together, not wearing protective gear, and applying in poorly ventilated areas.

Link to report: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6916e1.htm

Misinformation During a Pandemic leads to negative health outcomes

A novel study looking at impacts of coverage of COVID-19 by two Fox News shows in the United States – Hannity and Tucker Carlson Tonight – on viewers’ behavior and downstream health outcomes. Carlson warned viewers about the threat posed by the coronavirus from early February, while Hannity originally dismissed the risks associated with the virus before gradually adjusting his position starting late February.  Hannity’s viewers changed behavior in response to the virus later than other Fox News viewers, while Carlson’s viewers changed behavior earlier. Greater viewership of Hannity relative to Tucker Carlson Tonight is strongly associated with a greater number of COVID-19 cases and deaths in the early stages of the pandemic.  The researchers say that provision of misinformation in the early stages of a pandemic can have important consequences for how a disease ultimately affects the population.

Link to paper: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3580487

When Confronting a Pandemic, We Must Save Nature to Save Ourselves

This is a well-written statement entitled “When Confronting a Pandemic, We Must Save Nature to Save Ourselves” from the Centre for American Progress. The statement says COVID-19 outbreak has laid bare the need for a more proactive and integrated approach to fight infectious disease epidemics, which are becoming more common in many regions around the world. Specifically, we need to address the problem at its root: the destruction of nature. Nature is connected to human health, from the inherent mechanisms through which ecosystems regulate the emergence of new pathogens to the health benefits of spending time outdoors. But in our destruction of earth’s natural resources, we are losing these free services and reducing our resilience to new diseases.

Link to PDF: When Confronting a Pandemic, We Must Save Nature to Save Ourselves

Outcomes of hydroxychloroquine usage in United States veterans hospitalized with Covid-19

A pre-print of the results of a study of 386 coronavirus patients in a US government hospital for military veterans found more deaths among those treated with hydroxychloroquine than those treated with standard care. These findings highlight the importance of awaiting the results of ongoing prospective, randomized, controlled studies before widespread adoption of this drug, say the authors of the study.

Link to article: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.16.20065920v2

Phylogenetic network analysis of SARS-CoV-2 genomes

New important research shows early ‘evolutionary paths’ of COVID-19 in humans – as the infection spread from Wuhan out to Europe and North America – using genetic network techniques. The research revealed three distinct ‘variants’ of COVID-19, consisting of clusters of closely related lineages, which they label ‘A’, ‘B’ and ‘C’. Variant ‘A’, most closely related to the virus found in both bats and pangolins, is described as ‘the root of the outbreak’. Type ‘B’ is derived from ‘A’, separated by two mutations, then ‘C’ is in turn a “daughter” of ‘B’. 

Link to article: https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/04/07/2004999117

Model quantifies the impact of quarantine measures on Covid-19’s spread

MIT has developed a model to determine the efficacy of quarantine measures and better predict the spread of the virus. The model found that in places where strong measures were implemented quickly, the quarantine effort could effectively curb the spread of the virus. In places where the quarantine efforts were rolled out slowly, the effort to slow the spread has been less effective. The model predicts when the coronavirus ‘plateau’ will take place, finding that the cases aren’t likely to start stagnating until some time between April 15 and April 20. It says that restrictions on quarantine can only be made when multiple conditions are met, including when the transmission is controlled, hospitals have capacities to meet all the needs of the public, workplaces have effective preventative measures in place, and more.

Link to article: http://news.mit.edu/2020/new-model-quantifies-impact-quarantine-measures-covid-19-spread-0416

Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released its Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa. The health crisis has precipitated an economic crisis reflecting three large shocks: disruption of production and a sharp reduction in demand; spillovers from a sharp deterioration in global growth and tighter financial conditions; and a severe decline in commodity prices. As a result, the region’s economy is projected to contract by 1.6 percent this year—the worst-reading on record. Some economies such as this highly dependent on tourism are expected to shrink further.

Link to publication: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/REO/SSA/Issues/2020/04/01/sreo0420

Determining the optimal duration of the COVID- 19 suppression policy: A cost-benefit analysis

The paper published on March 27 by the American Enterprise Institute compared the economic costs of businesses staying closed, which causes a steep drop in the gross domestic product, with the economic benefits of a lockdown. The research found that for at least two more months, the economic benefits of controlling the virus and preventing illness and death are greater than the economic cost of closing most non-essential businesses. It also found that even after the lockdown is lifted, we must keep in place more moderate measures, such as wearing face masks and limiting public gatherings, until a vaccine or an effective drug or treatment becomes widely available.

Link to paper: https://www.aei.org/research-products/working-paper/determining-the-optimal-duration-of-the-covid-19-suppression-policy-a-cost-benefit-analysis/

Extreme genomic CpG deficiency in SARS-CoV-2 and evasion of host antiviral defense

New genetic analysis of SARS-CoV-2 and related coronaviruses suggests the ancestor of COVID-19 and its nearest relative — a bat coronavirus — infected the intestine of dogs, most likely resulting in a rapid evolution of the virus and its jump into humans. This suggests the importance of monitoring SARS-like coronaviruses in feral dogs. It is to be noted however that other experts have doubts.

Link to article: https://academic.oup.com/mbe/article/doi/10.1093/molbev/msaa094/5819559

Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period

The paper projects that the US may have to endure social distancing measures — such as stay-at-home orders and school closures — until 2022, unless critical care capacity is increased substantially or treatment or vaccine becomes available. Another round of the virus is possible once social distancing measures are lifted. Even in the event of apparent elimination, SARS-CoV-2 surveillance should be maintained since a resurgence in contagion could be possible as late as 2024.

Link to paper: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/04/14/science.abb5793.full

Global shifts in mammalian population trends reveal key predictors of virus spillover risk

Paper shows that wild mammals that were at risk of extinction owing to human activities carried twice the zoonotic diseases compared to animals that were not at the same risk. Among threatened wildlife species, those with population reductions owing to exploitation and loss of habitat shared more viruses with humans. This has increased opportunities for animal-human interactions and facilitated zoonotic-disease transmission.

Link to article: https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspb.2019.2736

Mortality associated with COVID-19 outbreaks in care homes: early international evidence

About half of all Covid-19 deaths appear to be happening in care homes in some European countries, according to early figures. Snapshot data from varying official sources shows that in Italy, Spain, France, Ireland and Belgium between 42% and 57% of deaths from the virus have been happening in care homes (non-acute residential and nursing facilities that house people with some form of long-term care needs).

Link to PDF: Mortality associated with COVID-19 outbreaks in care homes: early international evidence

Effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions for containing the COVID-19 outbreak in China

Study shows that by the end of February 2020 without non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in China– such as early detection, isolation of cases and social distancing – the number of infected people would have been 67 times larger than that which occurred. If NPIs could have been conducted one week, two weeks, or three weeks earlier in China, cases could have been reduced by 66%, 86%, and 95%, respectively, together with significantly reducing the number of affected areas. Improved disease detection, isolation of cases and social distancing are likely to a far greater positive impact on containment than travel restrictions, says the study.

Link to study: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.03.20029843v3

Considerations for Drug Interactions on QTc in Exploratory COVID-19 (Coronavirus Disease 2019) Treatment

In a joint statement on April 8, the American Heart Association, the American College of Cardiology, and the Heart Rhythm Society cast doubts as to the safety of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin for potential prophylaxis or treatment for COVID-19; both drugs are listed as definite causes of torsade de pointes” and increase in the risk of other arrhythmias and sudden death”, the statement says. In addition “seriously ill patients often have comorbidities that can increase risk of serious arrhythmias,” including hypokalemia, hypomagnesemia, fever, and systemic inflammation, the groups said.

Link to PDF:

Considerations for Drug Interactions on QTc in Exploratory COVID-19 (Coronavirus Disease 2019) Treatment

How does COVID-19 kill? Uncertainty is hampering doctors’ ability to choose treatments

How does COVID-19 kill? Uncertainty over whether it is the virus itself — or the response by a person’s immune system — that ultimately overwhelms a patient’s organs, is making it difficult for doctors to determine the best way to treat patients who are critically ill with the coronavirus. Clinical data suggest that the immune system plays a part in the decline and death of people infected with the new coronavirus, and this has spurred a push for treatments such as steroids that rein in that immune response. But some of these treatments act broadly to suppress the immune system.

Link to article: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01056-7

Effectiveness of convalescent plasma therapy in severe COVID-19 patients

A new preliminary study shows a single 200 mL dose of convalescent plasma (CP) from COVID-19 patients who recently recovered shortened the duration of symptoms, improved oxygen levels and increased the clearance of the virus in patients who were still suffering from the disease. “One dose of convalescent plasma with a high concentration of neutralizing antibodies can rapidly reduce the viral load and tends to improve clinical outcomes”.

https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/04/02/2004168117

Potential vulnerability of COVID-19

An antibody recovered from a survivor of the SARS epidemic in the early 2000s has revealed a potential vulnerability of the new coronavirus at the root of COVID-19.

Published in Science, the study is the first to map a human antibody’s interaction with the new coronavirus at near-atomic-scale resolution. Although the antibody was produced in response to an infection of SARS, which is caused by the SARS-CoV virus, it cross-reacts with the new coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2.

Link to study: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/04/02/science.abb7269.full

The FDA-approved Drug Ivermectin inhibits the replication of SARS-CoV-2 in vitro

Study showed that a single dose of the drug, Ivermectin, could stop the SARS-CoV-2 virus growing in cell culture – effectively eradicating all genetic material of the virus within 48 hours. Ivermectin is an anti-parasitic drug that has also been shown to be effective in vitro against a broad range of viruses including HIV, Dengue, Influenza and Zika virus.

Link to study: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166354220302011

Coronavirus can infect cats — dogs, not so much

Cats can be infected with COVID-19 and can spread it to other cats, but dogs are not really susceptible to the infection, say researchers in China. The team, at Harbin Veterinary Research Institute, also concludes that chickens, pigs, and ducks are not likely to catch the virus. Other scientists say the findings are interesting but note the results are based on lab experiments in which a small number of animals were deliberately given high doses of the virus, SARS-CoV-2, and do not represent real-life interactions between people and their pets.

Link to article: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00984-8

Correlation between universal BCG vaccination policy and reduced morbidity and mortality for COVID-19: an epidemiological study

A preprint of a study says that countries with mandatory policies to vaccinate against tuberculosis register fewer coronavirus deaths than countries that don’t have those policies.

Link to article: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/340263333_Correlation_between_universal_BCG_vaccination_policy_and_reduced_morbidity_and_mortality_for_COVID-19_an_epidemiological_study

Assessment of Narratives and Disinformation Around the COVID-19 Pandemic – EU vs DISINFORMATION

Disinformation and misinformation around COVID-19 continue to proliferate around the world, with potentially harmful consequences for public health and effective crisis communication. In the EU and elsewhere, coordinated disinformation messaging seeks to frame vulnerable minorities as the cause of the pandemic and to fuel distrust in the ability of democratic institutions to deliver effective responses.

Link to article: https://euvsdisinfo.eu/eeas-special-report-update-short-assessment-of-narratives-and-disinformation-around-the-covid-19-pandemic/

Rational use of face masks in the COVID-19 pandemic

Comparison of face mask use recommendations by different health authorities. Despite the consistency in the recommendation that symptomatic individuals and those in health-care settings should use face masks, differences in recommendations were observed for the general public and community settings. Evidence that face masks can provide effective protection against respiratory infections in the community is scarce. However, face masks are widely used by medical workers as part of droplet precautions when caring for patients with respiratory infections. The study suggests vulnerable individuals avoid crowded areas and use surgical face masks rationally when exposed to high-risk areas. 

Link to article: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30134-X/fulltext

Social distancing strategies for curbing the COVID-19 epidemic | medRxiv

In this pre-print a team from Harvard using mathematical model found that one-time interventions will be insufficient to maintain COVID-19 prevalence within the critical care capacity of the United States. Seasonal variation in transmission will facilitate epidemic control during the summer months but could lead to an intense resurgence in the autumn. Intermittent distancing measures can maintain control of the epidemic, but without other interventions, these measures may be necessary into 2022.

Link to article: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.22.20041079v1

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