Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period

The paper projects that the US may have to endure social distancing measures — such as stay-at-home orders and school closures — until 2022, unless critical care capacity is increased substantially or treatment or vaccine becomes available. Another round of the virus is possible once social distancing measures are lifted. Even in the event of apparent elimination, SARS-CoV-2 surveillance should be maintained since a resurgence in contagion could be possible as late as 2024.

Link to paper: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/04/14/science.abb5793.full

Social distancing strategies for curbing the COVID-19 epidemic | medRxiv

In this pre-print a team from Harvard using mathematical model found that one-time interventions will be insufficient to maintain COVID-19 prevalence within the critical care capacity of the United States. Seasonal variation in transmission will facilitate epidemic control during the summer months but could lead to an intense resurgence in the autumn. Intermittent distancing measures can maintain control of the epidemic, but without other interventions, these measures may be necessary into 2022.

Link to article: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.22.20041079v1

Scroll to top