Paper published in Science
looks at how travel and quarantine influence the dynamics of the spread of
COVID-19. It concludes that the travel quarantine introduced in Wuhan on
23 January 2020 only delayed epidemic progression by 3 to 5 days within China,
but international travel restrictions did help to slow spread elsewhere in the
world until mid-February. The results suggest that early detection, hand
washing, self-isolation, and household quarantine will likely be more effective
than travel restrictions at mitigating this pandemic.
Link to paper: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/6489/395.full
MIT has developed a model to determine the efficacy of quarantine
measures and better predict the spread of the virus. The model found that in places where strong
measures were implemented quickly, the quarantine effort could effectively curb
the spread of the virus. In places where the quarantine efforts were rolled out
slowly, the effort to slow the spread has been less effective. The model
predicts when the coronavirus ‘plateau’ will take place, finding that the cases
aren’t likely to start stagnating until some time between April 15 and April
20. It says that restrictions on quarantine can only be made when multiple
conditions are met, including when the transmission is controlled, hospitals
have capacities to meet all the needs of the public, workplaces have effective
preventative measures in place, and more.
Link to article: http://news.mit.edu/2020/new-model-quantifies-impact-quarantine-measures-covid-19-spread-0416
Decisions on how to apply quarantine should be based on the best available evidence. This paper reviews the psychological impact of quarantine using three electronic databases. Results show that in situations where quarantine is deemed necessary, officials should quarantine individuals for no longer than required, provide a clear rationale for quarantine and information about protocols, and ensure sufficient supplies are provided.
Link to article: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30460-8/fulltext
PDF: The psychological impact of quarantine and how to reduce it: rapid review of the evidence